How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
View on PolymarketPrice History
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 11 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
Tracked smart money is net selling ($885 net), leaning YES. Largest single move: a rank-#90 wallet sold $115 NO at 30¢ on Jun 15.
- SELLNO0x1ca4...f2d4#9030¢$115.2Jun 15
- SELLNO0x1ca4...f2d4#9029¢$93.2Jun 15
- SELLNO0x1ca4...f2d4#9030¢$85.5Jun 15
- SELLNO0x1ca4...f2d4#9030¢$67.1Jun 16
- SELLNO0x1ca4...f2d4#9029¢$34.6Jun 15
- SELLNO0x1ca4...f2d4#9030¢$32.2Jun 15
- SELLNO0x1ca4...f2d4#9030¢$29.5Jun 15
- SELLNO0x1ca4...f2d4#9029¢$20Jun 15
Holder Concentration
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.61). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 2 winning, 1 losing (win rate 67%); net $21.5K across 5 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @mcorleone Rank #787.1 SIG | YES | open | 70,001.26 | 49.1¢ | $56,176 | +$21,770 +63.3% | — | — | |
| 0x5287...3a16 Rank #110.0 SIG | NO | closed | 47,855.62 | 18.5¢ | — | -$286 -3.2% | May 23, 2026 | Jun 6, 2026 | |
| 0x8a4c...2c4c Rank #209.1 SIG | YES | closed | 2,198.84 | 65.7¢ | — | +$101 +7.0% | — | May 23, 2026 | |
| ▸ | 0x005a...bcce Rank #397.6 SIG | YES | closed | 16 | 68.7¢ | — | -$0 -0.1% | Jun 16, 2026 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x1ca4...f2d4 Rank #906.2 SIG | NO | closed | 3,000 | 32.1¢ | — | -$78 -8.1% | Jun 15, 2026 | Jun 16, 2026 |