Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
View on PolymarketPrice History
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 4 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
Tracked smart money is net buying ($14.8K net), leaning YES. Largest single move: 0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86 bought $9.4K YES at 71¢ on Jun 22.
- BUYYES0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86#6671¢$9.4KJun 22
- BUYYES0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86#6678¢$7.1KJun 22
- BUYYES0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86#6644¢$1.4KJun 22
- SELLYES0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86#6684¢$1KJun 22
- SELLYES0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86#6683¢$830Jun 22
- BUYYES0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86#6623¢$502.4Jun 22
- BUYYESToncar1638¢$500Jun 22
- SELLYES0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86#6633¢$499.1Jun 22
Holder Concentration
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 1.00). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 1 winning, 0 losing (win rate 100%); net $3.5K across 2 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | @0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86 Rank #666.8 SIG | YES | open | 26,809.11 | 65.9¢ | $21,179 | +$3,516 +19.9% | Jun 21, 2026 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | @Toncar16 Unranked | YES | closed | 0 | 38.5¢ | — | +$5 +0.5% | Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 22, 2026 |