IsraelLiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

9.5¢

implied probability

24h Drift

0.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

2.5¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$536.5K

order-book depth

24h Volume

$101.5K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

$3.4K

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

8 YES · 9 NO

Top Holder

39%

of tracked capital

Price History

YES priceWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 9 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

6 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net buying ($3.4K net), leaning NO. Largest single move: a rank-#13 wallet bought $1.0K NO at 82¢ on May 23.

BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1382¢$1KMay 23
BUYNOkevtp#10088¢$880Jun 13
BUYNOkevtp#10088¢$880Jun 13
BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1382¢$455.6May 23
BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1382¢$136.7May 23
BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1382¢$4.9May 23

Holder Concentration

39.2%$52.9K

11.4%$15.4K

10.9%$14.8K

9.4%$12.7K

8.4%$11.4K

4.3%$5.8K

0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86#66

4.2%$5.6K

WashTrade#93

3.9%$5.2K

+ 9 more wallets

8.2%$11.1K

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 79% of tracked capital (HHI 0.20). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 8 winning, 4 losing (win rate 67%); net $11.8K across 17 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount47% / 53%

one wallet, one vote

By capital19% / 81%

weighted by committed $

By skill50% / 50%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
▸	0xbd27...2807 Rank #139.5 SIG	NO	open	1,999.99	82.0¢	$1,810	+$170 +10.4%	May 23, 2026	May 23, 2026
	0x371c...c236 Rank #159.1 SIG	YES	open	279.6	9.8¢	$27	-$1 -3.2%	Jun 14, 2026	Jun 16, 2026
	0x8a4c...2c4c Rank #209.1 SIG	YES	open	428.57	21.0¢	$41	-$49 -54.7%	—	—
	@eCash Rank #737.1 SIG	NO	open	22,205.43	69.3¢	$20,096	+$4,696 +30.5%	—	—
	0x165e...f5aa Rank #756.6 SIG	NO	open	2,199	67.0¢	$1,990	+$517 +35.1%	—	—
	@aff3 Rank #996.6 SIG	NO	open	64,457.7	82.0¢	$58,334	+$5,479 +10.4%	—	—
▸	@kevtp Rank #1006.0 SIG	NO	open	3,000	85.2¢	$2,715	+$158 +6.2%	Jun 13, 2026	Jun 13, 2026
	0x61ea...bbf7 Rank #119.6 SIG	YES	closed	10,563.49	55.0¢	—	-$423 -7.3%	—	Mar 4, 2026
	0xdf90...41f0 Rank #199.1 SIG	YES	closed	130.43	23.0¢	—	-$5 -17.4%	—	Apr 14, 2026
	@KrackenSruster Rank #358.4 SIG	NO	closed	17,684	64.4¢	—	-$143 -1.3%	—	Mar 29, 2026
	@BigRabbit Rank #477.3 SIG	YES	closed	70,773.68	18.0¢	—	-$1,478 -11.6%	—	May 7, 2026
	0x0099...386e Rank #607.0 SIG	NO	closed	6,079.84	67.0¢	—	+$1,086 +26.7%	—	Apr 1, 2026
	@0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86 Rank #666.8 SIG	NO	closed	9,694.86	58.1¢	—	+$1,061 +18.8%	—	Mar 25, 2026
	@Frigg Rank #717.2 SIG	YES	closed	2,000	49.0¢	—	+$45 +4.6%	—	Feb 28, 2026
	0x6fc2...7999 Rank #866.9 SIG	YES	closed	1,010	20.0¢	—	+$0 0.0%	—	Apr 19, 2026
	@WashTrade Rank #936.8 SIG	YES	closed	28,985.41	18.0¢	—	+$1,100 +21.1%	—	Apr 18, 2026
	0xba3c...2e4e Rank #966.7 SIG	NO	closed	24,912.12	59.3¢	—	-$449 -3.0%	—	Mar 30, 2026