Elon Musk # tweets June 16 - June 23, 2026?
View on PolymarketPrice History
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 1 regime shift flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
Tracked smart money is net selling ($1.4K net), leaning YES. Largest single move: UpDownUpDown sold $1000 YES at 45¢ on Jun 21.
- SELLYESUpDownUpDown#4145¢$1KJun 21
- SELLYESUpDownUpDown#4145¢$900Jun 21
- BUYYESUpDownUpDown#4121¢$360.6Jun 19
- SELLYESUpDownUpDown#4145¢$150.7Jun 21
- BUYYESUpDownUpDown#4120¢$130.7Jun 19
- BUYYESUpDownUpDown#4121¢$97.8Jun 18
- SELLYESUpDownUpDown#4145¢$90Jun 21
- BUYYESUpDownUpDown#4120¢$57Jun 19
Holder Concentration
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 1.00). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 1 winning, 0 losing (win rate 100%); net $1.2K across 1 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | @UpDownUpDown Rank #417.5 SIG | YES | closed | 4,999.93 | 20.8¢ | — | +$1,210 +116.3% | Jun 18, 2026 | Jun 21, 2026 |