WeatherLiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

4.1¢

implied probability

24h Drift

0.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

0.7¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$395K

order-book depth

24h Volume

$5.3K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

-$44.4K

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

5 YES · 7 NO

Top Holder

68%

of tracked capital

Price History

YES priceWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 2 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

125 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net selling ($44.4K net), leaning YES. Largest single move: aff3 sold $10.7K NO at 96¢ on Jun 19.

SELLNOaff3#9996¢$10.7KJun 19
SELLNOaff3#9996¢$9.7KJun 19
SELLNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#9996¢$4.8KJun 13
SELLNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#9996¢$1.9KJun 13
SELLNOaff3#9996¢$1.5KJun 20
SELLNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#9996¢$1.5KJun 13
SELLNOaff3#9996¢$1.2KJun 22
SELLNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#9996¢$1.2KJun 13
SELLNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#9996¢$1KJun 12

Holder Concentration

aff3#99

68.3%$125.3K

eightpenguins#23

21.6%$39.5K

0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#99

3.1%$5.7K

2.2%$4K

1.4%$2.5K

1.3%$2.4K

1.2%$2.2K

0.3%$500

+ 4 more wallets

0.7%$1.3K

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 97% of tracked capital (HHI 0.52). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 4 winning, 1 losing (win rate 80%); net $7.4K across 12 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount42% / 58%

one wallet, one vote

By capital2% / 98%

weighted by committed $

By skill43% / 57%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
	0x8a4c...2c4c Rank #209.1 SIG	NO	open	552.98	90.4¢	$530	+$30 +6.1%	—	—
	@0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86 Rank #666.8 SIG	YES	open	3,814.06	6.1¢	$156	-$78 -33.2%	—	—
▸	@aff3 Rank #996.6 SIG	NO	open	136,055.77	92.1¢	$130,477	+$5,181 +4.1%	Jun 19, 2026	Jun 22, 2026
▸	@0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49 Rank #996.0 SIG	NO	open	7,094.05	79.7¢	$6,803	+$1,148 +20.3%	Jun 12, 2026	Jun 13, 2026
	@sssherra Rank #310.0 SIG	YES	closed	5,208.33	9.6¢	—	-$21 -4.2%	—	May 8, 2026
	@0xrandd8 Rank #129.2 SIG	YES	closed	32,479.42	7.7¢	—	-$43 -1.7%	—	May 11, 2026
▸	0x88d1...c1c3 Rank #169.3 SIG	YES	closed	3,000	7.0¢	—	-$94 -44.8%	Jun 14, 2026	Jun 14, 2026
	0xa43d...00f4 Rank #198.8 SIG	NO	closed	2,439.48	90.8¢	—	+$95 +4.3%	—	May 26, 2026
	@eightpenguins Rank #238.9 SIG	NO	closed	43,332.93	91.2¢	—	+$1,334 +3.4%	—	Jun 8, 2026
	0x7726...4aee Rank #288.2 SIG	NO	closed	2,566.96	91.8¢	—	-$25 -1.1%	—	May 7, 2026
▸	0xbd69...e123 Rank #557.5 SIG	YES	closed	5,000	8.0¢	—	-$200 -50.0%	May 9, 2026	Jun 14, 2026
	0xd75a...fdec Rank #577.4 SIG	NO	closed	4,325.25	91.3¢	—	+$123 +3.1%	Jun 7, 2026	Jun 8, 2026