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TechLiveResolves Jun 30, 2026

Which company has best AI model end of June?

View on Polymarket
YES Price
93.6¢
implied probability
24h Drift
+0.7¢
day-over-day
Volatility
3.4¢
daily price swing (σ)
Liquidity
$3.4M
order-book depth
24h Volume
$167.1K
traded last day
Smart $ Net
$0
tracked buy − sell
Tracked Wallets
3
2 YES · 1 NO
Top Holder
66%
of tracked capital

Price History

AnthropicGoogleOpenAIWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift
25¢50¢75¢100¢Oct 11Jan 4Mar 30Jun 23

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 8 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

0 tracked fills

No tracked whale trades in this market yet.

Holder Concentration

cry.eth2#44
0.8%$106.9

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.55). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

1
≤ −$5K
−$5K…−$1K
−$1K…−$100
≈ flat
2
$100…$1K
$1K…$5K
≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 2 winning, 1 losing (win rate 67%); net -$6.7K across 3 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount67% / 33%
one wallet, one vote
By capital34% / 66%
weighted by committed $
By skill65% / 35%
weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills
ContactSideStateSizeAvg EntryValueP/LFirst BuyLast Trade
@cry.eth2
Rank #447.5 SIG
YESopen288.8137.0¢$269+$162 +151.4%
0xb47a...6d60
Rank #697.3 SIG
NOopen15,55555.0¢$1,050-$7,505 -87.7%Apr 26, 2026Apr 27, 2026
0x1ca4...f2d4
Rank #906.2 SIG
YESclosed6,003.3770.0¢+$600 +14.3%Jun 2, 2026Jun 4, 2026