Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
View on PolymarketYES Price
57.5¢
implied probability
24h Drift
0.0¢
day-over-day
Volatility
1.1¢
daily price swing (σ)
Liquidity
$372.3K
order-book depth
24h Volume
$2.8K
traded last day
Smart $ Net
$0
tracked buy − sell
Tracked Wallets
3
1 YES · 2 NO
Top Holder
80%
of tracked capital
Price History
Republican PartyDemocratic PartyWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 3 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
No tracked whale trades in this market yet.
Holder Concentration
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.67). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 1 winning, 1 losing (win rate 50%); net -$124.3 across 3 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
By headcount33% / 67%
one wallet, one vote
By capital16% / 84%
weighted by committed $
By skill30% / 70%
weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @lomneivan Rank #179.2 SIG | NO | open | 4,895.42 | 47.0¢ | $2,081 | -$220 -9.6% | — | — | |
| 0xba3c...2e4e Rank #966.7 SIG | YES | open | 1,000 | 47.0¢ | $575 | +$105 +22.4% | — | — | |
| @Jep-G Rank #976.7 SIG | NO | open | 200 | 47.0¢ | $85 | -$9 -9.6% | — | — |