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AILiveResolves Jun 30, 2026

Largest Company end of June?

View on Polymarket
YES Price
98.9¢
implied probability
24h Drift
+0.1¢
day-over-day
Volatility
4.0¢
daily price swing (σ)
Liquidity
$1.5M
order-book depth
24h Volume
$259.1K
traded last day
Smart $ Net
-$161
tracked buy − sell
Tracked Wallets
2
1 YES · 1 NO
Top Holder
87%
of tracked capital

Price History

NVIDIAAppleAlphabetWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift
25¢50¢75¢100¢Oct 11Jan 4Mar 30Jun 23SELL NO · 0x1ca4...f2d4SELL NO · 0x1ca4...f2d4SELL NO · 0x1ca4...f2d4SELL NO · 0x1ca4...f2d4SELL NO · 0x1ca4...f2d4SELL NO · 0x1ca4...f2d4SELL NO · 0x1ca4...f2d4SELL NO · 0x1ca4...f2d4

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 6 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

25 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net selling ($161 net), leaning YES. Largest single move: a rank-#90 wallet sold $98 NO at 6¢ on Jun 15.

Holder Concentration

cry.eth2#44
87.4%$5.5K
0x1ca4...f2d4#90
12.6%$791.8

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.78). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K
−$5K…−$1K
−$1K…−$100
1
≈ flat
$100…$1K
$1K…$5K
1
≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 1 winning, 0 losing (win rate 100%); net $11.3K across 2 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount50% / 50%
one wallet, one vote
By capital87% / 13%
weighted by committed $
By skill54% / 46%
weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills
ContactSideStateSizeAvg EntryValueP/LFirst BuyLast Trade
@cry.eth2
Rank #447.5 SIG
YESclosed20,34927.1¢+$11,252 +204.3%Jun 9, 2026
0x1ca4...f2d4
Rank #906.2 SIG
NOclosed11,999.546.6¢+$96 +12.2%Jun 15, 2026Jun 15, 2026