Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
View on PolymarketPrice History
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 5 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
Tracked smart money is net buying ($4.8K net), leaning NO. Largest single move: a rank-#13 wallet bought $1.7K NO at 84¢ on May 24.
- BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1384¢$1.7KMay 24
- BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1385¢$1.6KMay 20
- BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1386¢$860Jun 10
- BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1385¢$341.6May 20
- BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1385¢$283.3May 20
- SELLNO0x665e...ea7e#3484¢$252May 8
- BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1385¢$72May 20
- BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1385¢$56.7May 20
Holder Concentration
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.52). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 2 winning, 0 losing (win rate 100%); net $2.4K across 5 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 0xbd27...2807 Rank #139.5 SIG | NO | open | 28,999.75 | 83.1¢ | $26,245 | +$2,146 +8.9% | May 20, 2026 | Jun 10, 2026 |
| 0x8a4c...2c4c Rank #209.1 SIG | NO | open | 254.71 | 80.5¢ | $231 | +$26 +12.5% | — | — | |
| 0x79d9...baec Rank #387.7 SIG | NO | open | 5,800 | 87.0¢ | $5,249 | +$203 +4.0% | — | — | |
| ▸ | 0x665e...ea7e Rank #348.0 SIG | NO | closed | 500 | 79.0¢ | — | +$17 +4.3% | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 |
| 0x71ab...f015 Rank #896.8 SIG | NO | closed | 6,000 | 85.3¢ | — | -$19 -0.4% | — | Mar 23, 2026 |