GeopoliticsLiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

13.5¢

implied probability

24h Drift

0.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

3.5¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$352K

order-book depth

24h Volume

$37K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

-$8.5K

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

9 YES · 16 NO

Top Holder

19%

of tracked capital

Price History

YES priceWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 3 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

197 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net selling ($8.5K net), leaning NO. Largest single move: 0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49 bought $9.6K NO at 82¢ on Jun 13.

BUYNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#9982¢$9.6KJun 13
SELLNOpng1024#5364¢$5.9KApr 21
SELLNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#9988¢$4.4KJun 15
SELLNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#9988¢$3.4KJun 15
SELLNOpng1024#5364¢$2.3KApr 21
BUYNOpng1024#5366¢$1.9KApr 20
SELLNOpng1024#5364¢$1.9KApr 21
SELLNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#9988¢$1.8KJun 15
SELLNO0xba3c...2e4e#9690¢$1.3KJun 14
SELLNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#9988¢$1.2KJun 15

Holder Concentration

19.1%$44.5K

12.4%$28.8K

9.6%$22.3K

9.3%$21.6K

9.3%$21.6K

7.9%$18.3K

0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095#69

4.4%$10.1K

0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#99

4.3%$10K

+ 17 more wallets

23.8%$55.4K

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 60% of tracked capital (HHI 0.09). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 13 winning, 6 losing (win rate 68%); net $18.5K across 25 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount36% / 64%

one wallet, one vote

By capital33% / 67%

weighted by committed $

By skill37% / 63%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
	0x371c...c236 Rank #159.1 SIG	YES	open	198.11	14.2¢	$27	-$1 -5.2%	Jun 14, 2026	Jun 15, 2026
	@eightpenguins Rank #238.9 SIG	NO	open	31,497.28	68.7¢	$27,245	+$5,596 +25.9%	—	—
▸	0x7726...4aee Rank #288.2 SIG	NO	open	214.46	83.0¢	$186	+$8 +4.2%	Jun 13, 2026	Jun 13, 2026
	@KrackenSruster Rank #358.4 SIG	NO	open	30,504.55	60.0¢	$26,386	+$8,082 +44.2%	—	—
	0x79d9...baec Rank #387.7 SIG	NO	open	10,300	73.0¢	$8,910	+$1,391 +18.5%	—	—
▸	0xbd69...e123 Rank #557.5 SIG	YES	open	4,000	15.0¢	$540	-$60 -10.0%	Jun 14, 2026	Jun 14, 2026
	0xd75a...fdec Rank #577.4 SIG	NO	open	3,316.63	68.1¢	$2,869	+$610 +27.0%	—	—
	0x165e...f5aa Rank #756.6 SIG	NO	open	1,885.98	46.4¢	$1,631	+$756 +86.3%	—	—
▸	@WashTrade Rank #936.8 SIG	YES	open	5,000.01	12.8¢	$675	+$33 +5.2%	Jun 21, 2026	Jun 22, 2026
▸	0xba3c...2e4e Rank #966.7 SIG	NO	open	1,510.07	67.7¢	$1,306	+$284 +27.8%	May 23, 2026	Jun 14, 2026
	@kevtp Rank #1006.0 SIG	NO	open	200.01	72.5¢	$173	+$28 +19.3%	Jun 1, 2026	Jun 11, 2026
	@0xrandd8 Rank #129.2 SIG	NO	closed	13,078.06	58.0¢	—	+$133 +1.8%	—	Apr 12, 2026
	@7153649820 Rank #168.9 SIG	YES	closed	22,999.99	34.1¢	—	-$782 -10.0%	—	Apr 15, 2026
	@de5nuts Rank #218.7 SIG	YES	closed	99,893.43	28.8¢	—	-$2,999 -10.4%	—	May 23, 2026
	0xd396...4991 Rank #268.3 SIG	NO	closed	7,929	65.6¢	—	+$293 +5.6%	—	Apr 21, 2026
	@BigRabbit Rank #477.3 SIG	YES	closed	119,849.81	18.0¢	—	-$10,343 -47.9%	—	Jun 14, 2026
	0x407d...1bae Rank #527.2 SIG	YES	closed	200	63.0¢	—	-$8 -6.3%	—	Apr 5, 2026
▸	@png1024 Rank #537.5 SIG	NO	closed	67,040.52	66.3¢	—	+$6,917 +15.6%	Apr 20, 2026	Apr 21, 2026
	@0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095 Rank #696.7 SIG	YES	closed	44,951.53	22.5¢	—	-$2,094 -20.7%	Jun 11, 2026	Jun 14, 2026
	@eCash Rank #737.1 SIG	NO	closed	50,807.01	43.9¢	—	+$10,352 +46.4%	—	May 6, 2026
	@VFALL Rank #857.0 SIG	NO	closed	8,270.55	68.0¢	—	+$153 +2.7%	—	Apr 23, 2026
	0x71ab...f015 Rank #896.8 SIG	NO	closed	500	41.0¢	—	+$175 +85.4%	—	Apr 8, 2026
	@Jep-G Rank #976.7 SIG	YES	closed	45,210.52	17.0¢	—	-$399 -5.2%	—	Jun 8, 2026
▸	@0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49 Rank #996.0 SIG	NO	closed	12,244.8	82.0¢	—	+$735 +7.3%	Jun 13, 2026	Jun 15, 2026
	@aff3 Rank #996.6 SIG	NO	closed	11,159.88	70.0¢	—	-$334 -4.3%	—	Apr 23, 2026