shipsLiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

86.5¢

implied probability

24h Drift

0.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

2.6¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$330.3K

order-book depth

24h Volume

$87.1K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

-$794.6

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

6 YES · 6 NO

Top Holder

34%

of tracked capital

Price History

YES priceWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 2 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

30 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net selling ($795 net), leaning YES. Largest single move: a rank-#86 wallet sold $2.4K YES at 82¢ on Jun 12.

SELLYES0x6fc2...7999#8682¢$2.4KJun 12
SELLYES0x9360...03e6#390¢$1.8KJun 14
BUYYES0x9360...03e6#376¢$1.5KJun 12
BUYYES0x6fc2...7999#8673¢$1.5KJun 10
SELLNOBigRabbit#4712¢$1.2KJun 22
BUYYES0x5287...3a16#172¢$854.2Jun 10
SELLYES0x5287...3a16#172¢$854.2Jun 10
BUYYES0x6fc2...7999#8674¢$740Jun 10

Holder Concentration

34.1%$4.3K

17.5%$2.2K

12.1%$1.5K

9.5%$1.2K

7.1%$889.9

6.8%$854.2

5.6%$699.5

4.0%$500

+ 4 more wallets

3.4%$433.8

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 80% of tracked capital (HHI 0.19). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 4 winning, 0 losing (win rate 100%); net $977.4 across 12 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount50% / 50%

one wallet, one vote

By capital80% / 20%

weighted by committed $

By skill55% / 45%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
▸	0x3ad1...b4c5 Rank #357.8 SIG	YES	open	850	82.3¢	$740	+$40 +5.7%	Jun 9, 2026	Jun 13, 2026
	@rocky42017 Rank #786.5 SIG	NO	open	1,160.28	14.0¢	$151	-$12 -7.1%	Jun 19, 2026	Jun 19, 2026
▸	@WashTrade Rank #946.8 SIG	NO	open	2,000.01	12.0¢	$260	+$20 +8.3%	Jun 22, 2026	Jun 22, 2026
	@Jep-G Rank #986.7 SIG	YES	open	5,000	85.8¢	$4,350	+$60 +1.4%	Jun 15, 2026	Jun 16, 2026
▸	0x5287...3a16 Rank #110.0 SIG	YES	closed	1,186.34	72.0¢	—	+$0 0.0%	Jun 10, 2026	Jun 10, 2026
▸	0x9360...03e6 Rank #39.9 SIG	YES	closed	2,000	76.0¢	—	+$280 +18.4%	Jun 12, 2026	Jun 14, 2026
	0x1c4c...8d85 Rank #109.3 SIG	YES	closed	1,000	50.0¢	—	+$210 +42.0%	—	Jun 1, 2026
▸	@BigRabbit Rank #477.3 SIG	NO	closed	10,000	12.0¢	—	+$1 +0.1%	Jun 22, 2026	Jun 22, 2026
	0x0099...386e Rank #607.0 SIG	NO	closed	3,707.92	24.0¢	—	+$118 +13.2%	Jun 11, 2026	Jun 11, 2026
▸	0x6fc2...7999 Rank #866.9 SIG	YES	closed	3,000	73.3¢	—	+$260 +11.8%	Jun 10, 2026	Jun 12, 2026
	0x71ab...f015 Rank #926.8 SIG	NO	closed	100	10.0¢	—	+$7 +70.0%	—	May 31, 2026
▸	0x27f2...4b62 Rank #946.0 SIG	NO	closed	82	26.0¢	—	-$7 -30.8%	Jun 12, 2026	Jun 12, 2026