ElectionsLiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Trump out as President before 2027?

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YES Price

9.5¢

implied probability

24h Drift

0.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

1.0¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$362.9K

order-book depth

24h Volume

$63.3K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

$300

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

1 YES · 1 NO

Top Holder

68%

of tracked capital

Price History

YES priceWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 10 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

1 tracked fill

Tracked smart money is net buying ($300 net), leaning YES. Largest single move: a rank-#61 wallet bought $300 YES at 11¢ on Jun 3.

BUYYES0x02a1...dd72#6111¢$300Jun 3

Holder Concentration

kevtp#100

68.2%$1.7K

0x02a1...dd72#61

31.8%$780

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.57). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 0 winning, 0 losing (win rate —); net -$39.6 across 2 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount50% / 50%

one wallet, one vote

By capital32% / 68%

weighted by committed $

By skill55% / 45%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
▸	0x02a1...dd72 Rank #617.4 SIG	YES	open	7,477.96	10.4¢	$710	-$70 -8.9%	Jun 3, 2026	Jun 3, 2026
	@kevtp Rank #1006.0 SIG	NO	closed	2,000	83.5¢	—	+$30 +1.8%	—	Apr 3, 2026