Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
View on PolymarketYES Price
42.5¢
implied probability
24h Drift
0.0¢
day-over-day
Volatility
1.0¢
daily price swing (σ)
Liquidity
$899.7K
order-book depth
24h Volume
$13.4K
traded last day
Smart $ Net
$0
tracked buy − sell
Tracked Wallets
4
4 YES · 0 NO
Top Holder
82%
of tracked capital
Price History
Democrats SweepR Senate, D HouseRepublicans SweepWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 9 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
No tracked whale trades in this market yet.
Holder Concentration
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.69). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 1 winning, 1 losing (win rate 50%); net -$1.2K across 4 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
By headcount100% / 0%
one wallet, one vote
By capital100% / 0%
weighted by committed $
By skill100% / 0%
weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbd27...2807 Rank #139.5 SIG | YES | open | 1,000 | 41.0¢ | $425 | +$15 +3.7% | — | — | |
| @lomneivan Rank #179.2 SIG | YES | open | 46,809.9 | 45.6¢ | $19,894 | -$1,437 -6.7% | May 18, 2026 | May 18, 2026 | |
| @cry.eth2 Rank #447.5 SIG | YES | open | 322.01 | 24.4¢ | $137 | +$58 +74.4% | — | — | |
| @Jep-G Rank #976.7 SIG | YES | closed | 8,744.22 | 49.0¢ | — | +$124 +2.9% | — | May 15, 2026 |