Los Angeles Mayoral Election
View on PolymarketYES Price
61.5¢
implied probability
24h Drift
0.0¢
day-over-day
Volatility
3.4¢
daily price swing (σ)
Liquidity
$1.2M
order-book depth
24h Volume
$31.4K
traded last day
Smart $ Net
$0
tracked buy − sell
Tracked Wallets
2
1 YES · 1 NO
Top Holder
52%
of tracked capital
Price History
Karen BassNithya RamanSpencer PrattWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 12 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
No tracked whale trades in this market yet.
Holder Concentration
cry.eth2#44
51.7%$336.9
0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#99
48.3%$314.4
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.50). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 1 winning, 0 losing (win rate 100%); net $284.7 across 2 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
By headcount50% / 50%
one wallet, one vote
By capital52% / 48%
weighted by committed $
By skill55% / 45%
weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @cry.eth2 Rank #447.5 SIG | YES | open | 1,000.01 | 33.7¢ | $615 | +$278 +82.5% | — | — | |
| @0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49 Rank #996.0 SIG | NO | closed | 1,064.62 | 29.5¢ | — | +$7 +2.1% | May 23, 2026 | May 28, 2026 |