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@rocky42017
0xf16dd3586eb9ca2b002a0498548b15439991b7f9
6.3
/ 10 · 90D
Humpback
Class · est. size $375.1K
30-Day Window6.5 SIG
- Edge / share
- +5.8¢ · 342 resolved
- Hit rate
- 51.3%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $817.1 / $91.4K
- % return
- +3.0%
- Observations
- 374
90-Day Window6.3 SIG
- Edge / share
- +5.1¢ · 1,931 resolved
- Hit rate
- 48.8%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $5.9K / $375.1K
- % return
- +2.1%
- Observations
- 2,000
Dive Profile
Net Catch · 90D
+$7,911
Depth = mark-to-market P/L90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 1.7¢ | 0.4¢ | $7 | -$27 |
| Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 1,250 | 0.3¢ | 0.4¢ | $6 | +$2 |
| Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? | Yes | 1,249.82 | 21.7¢ | 27.5¢ | $344 | +$72 |
| Rippling IPO before 2027? | Yes | 1,249.81 | 22.2¢ | 14.5¢ | $181 | -$96 |
| Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 1,249.81 | 3.2¢ | 0.4¢ | $6 | -$34 |
| Vanta IPO before 2027? | Yes | 1,249.46 | 22.4¢ | 12.5¢ | $156 | -$124 |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 1,249.32 | 0.3¢ | 0.4¢ | $6 | +$2 |
| Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? | Yes | 1,249.15 | 21.3¢ | 12.5¢ | $156 | -$110 |
| Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | Yes | 1,209.57 | 17.4¢ | 8.5¢ | $103 | -$108 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 1,160.28 | 14.0¢ | 13.0¢ | $151 | -$12 |
| Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? | Yes | 1,157.61 | 19.4¢ | 2.1¢ | $24 | -$201 |
| Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? | Yes | 1,050.14 | 21.0¢ | 7.5¢ | $79 | -$142 |
| Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Yes | 1,031.28 | 4.1¢ | 4.2¢ | $43 | +$0 |
| Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 1,000.06 | 0.4¢ | 0.4¢ | $5 | +$1 |
| Celonis IPO before 2027? | Yes | 948.36 | 23.6¢ | 12.5¢ | $119 | -$105 |
| Mistral AI IPO before 2027? | Yes | 919.06 | 18.1¢ | 15.5¢ | $142 | -$24 |
| Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 890.87 | 3.1¢ | 0.4¢ | $4 | -$24 |
| Anduril IPO before 2027? | Yes | 868.83 | 26.7¢ | 10.0¢ | $87 | -$145 |
| Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | No | 817.08 | 30.2¢ | 25.5¢ | $208 | -$38 |
| Ramp IPO before 2027? | Yes | 779.17 | 30.2¢ | 10.5¢ | $82 | -$153 |
| Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B? | Yes | 612.31 | 30.5¢ | 20.5¢ | $126 | -$62 |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? | Yes | 516.51 | 30.4¢ | 17.0¢ | $88 | -$69 |
| Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B? | Yes | 461.17 | 20.5¢ | 16.0¢ | $74 | -$21 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-14 House seat? | No | 454.55 | 7.0¢ | 6.5¢ | $30 | -$2 |
| Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year? | Yes | 433.44 | 31.3¢ | 9.2¢ | $40 | -$96 |
| Ledger IPO before 2027? | Yes | 408.18 | 35.2¢ | 11.0¢ | $45 | -$99 |
| Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 384.38 | 4.4¢ | 2.3¢ | $9 | -$8 |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | No | 382.83 | 44.0¢ | 46.5¢ | $178 | +$10 |
| Glean IPO before 2027? | Yes | 356 | 16.3¢ | 14.5¢ | $52 | -$6 |
| Remote IPO before 2027? | Yes | 348.83 | 18.4¢ | 20.0¢ | $70 | +$6 |
| Deel IPO before 2027? | Yes | 315.26 | 27.6¢ | 4.5¢ | $14 | -$73 |
| Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Yes | 300 | 11.8¢ | 40.0¢ | $120 | +$85 |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 299.92 | 15.0¢ | 13.0¢ | $39 | -$6 |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Yes | 299.91 | 74.5¢ | 73.5¢ | $220 | -$3 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 299.65 | 20.0¢ | 16.5¢ | $49 | -$11 |
| Brex IPO before 2027? | Yes | 299.4 | 5.0¢ | 1.4¢ | $4 | -$11 |
| SHEIN IPO before 2027? | Yes | 296.43 | 26.3¢ | 17.7¢ | $52 | -$25 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | Yes | 265.24 | 15.9¢ | 16.0¢ | $42 | +$0 |
| Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Yes | 258.82 | 46.0¢ | 2.9¢ | $7 | -$112 |
| Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Yes | 249.54 | 6.0¢ | 13.0¢ | $32 | +$17 |
| Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 231.94 | 13.7¢ | 2.9¢ | $7 | -$25 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? | Yes | 223.87 | 75.6¢ | 32.9¢ | $74 | -$96 |
| Epic Games IPO before 2027? | Yes | 221.23 | 17.8¢ | 10.8¢ | $24 | -$16 |
| Canva IPO before 2027? | Yes | 202.8 | 21.4¢ | 13.5¢ | $27 | -$16 |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 181.08 | 4.1¢ | 3.1¢ | $6 | -$2 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | Yes | 174.07 | 14.0¢ | 10.5¢ | $18 | -$6 |
| Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? | No | 173.5 | 26.3¢ | 32.4¢ | $56 | +$11 |
| Kraken IPO closing market cap above $28B? | Yes | 165 | 19.0¢ | 5.5¢ | $9 | -$22 |
| Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? | Yes | 158.01 | 17.1¢ | 22.5¢ | $36 | +$9 |
| Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B? | Yes | 154 | 31.0¢ | 16.5¢ | $25 | -$22 |
| Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? | Yes | 152.85 | 71.2¢ | 67.6¢ | $103 | -$5 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 145.24 | 36.7¢ | 33.0¢ | $48 | -$5 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-23 House seat? | No | 122.22 | 18.0¢ | 12.5¢ | $15 | -$7 |
| Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03? | No | 115.24 | 22.7¢ | 8.3¢ | $10 | -$17 |
| Will Paloma Valencia win less than 10% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? | No | 112.36 | 1.1¢ | 1.2¢ | $1 | +$0 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Yes | 110.91 | 3.3¢ | 0.9¢ | $1 | -$3 |
| Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? | No | 100.34 | 67.7¢ | 69.5¢ | $70 | +$2 |
| Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Yes | 100 | 2.1¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | No | 98.27 | 82.0¢ | 84.0¢ | $83 | +$2 |
| Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Yes | 91 | 3.6¢ | 0.8¢ | $1 | -$3 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 84.98 | 4.9¢ | 4.2¢ | $4 | -$1 |
| Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 83.25 | 8.1¢ | 4.5¢ | $4 | -$3 |
| Will a team from LCP (Asia-Pacific) win MSI 2026? | Yes | 61.56 | 1.2¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 60.37 | 55.0¢ | 50.5¢ | $30 | -$3 |
| Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | Yes | 51.8 | 14.0¢ | 16.5¢ | $9 | +$1 |
| Waymo IPO before 2027? | Yes | 49.02 | 34.0¢ | 4.4¢ | $2 | -$15 |
| Bank of England rate hike in 2026? | No | 47.41 | 65.3¢ | 61.5¢ | $29 | -$2 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 30 or 31 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 39.4 | 0.3¢ | 0.9¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 32.27 | 17.5¢ | 15.5¢ | $5 | -$1 |
| Kraken IPO closing market cap above $26B? | Yes | 28.93 | 18.5¢ | 13.0¢ | $4 | -$2 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? | No | 27.92 | 24.8¢ | 67.2¢ | $19 | +$12 |
| Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 20.36 | 8.0¢ | 9.3¢ | $2 | +$0 |
| Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026? | Yes | 9.25 | 1.1¢ | 2.9¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%? | Yes | 8.18 | 10.0¢ | 10.0¢ | $1 | -$0 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | No | 4.97 | 54.0¢ | 61.5¢ | $3 | +$0 |
| Another US debt downgrade before 2027? | Yes | 4.48 | 29.7¢ | 17.0¢ | $1 | -$1 |
| Will a team from CBLOL (Brazil) win MSI 2026? | Yes | 4 | 0.4¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Jillian Gilchrest be the Democratic nominee for CT-01? | Yes | 4 | 4.1¢ | 3.2¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? | Yes | 4 | 8.0¢ | 12.5¢ | $1 | +$0 |
| Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Yes | 3.3 | 1.9¢ | 2.6¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election? | No | 2.65 | 6.0¢ | 3.5¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026? | Yes | 2.55 | 1.6¢ | 0.5¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 1.49 | 16.0¢ | 8.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | No | 1.22 | 18.0¢ | 42.5¢ | $1 | +$0 |
| Consensys IPO closing market cap above $2B? | Yes | 1.06 | 37.0¢ | 16.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 90.3¢ | 90.6¢ | 406 | 510.19 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Yes | 74.0¢ | — | 263 | 0 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 9.5¢ | 182.34 | 176 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B? | Yes | — | 17.0¢ | 0 | 27 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Brie Larson as Captain Marvel? | Yes | — | 56.9¢ | 0 | 44 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? | No | 27.5¢ | 31.9¢ | 416.86 | 244 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? | Yes | 70.8¢ | 71.8¢ | 472.82 | 454.14 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Republican Party win the NY-23 House seat? | No | — | 12.0¢ | 0 | 60.78 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score | No | 76.4¢ | 66.5¢ | 710.82 | 461.64 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 35.0¢ | 27.1¢ | 731.57 | 731.1 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 | No | 32.9¢ | 15.5¢ | 594.99 | 590 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 | Yes | 32.0¢ | 80.0¢ | 300 | 249 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 | Yes | 16.2¢ | 52.0¢ | 299.46 | 299 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 | No | 14.3¢ | 7.4¢ | 745.53 | 526 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 | Yes | 79.3¢ | 81.8¢ | 1,013.48 | 714.24 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 | No | 62.0¢ | 39.8¢ | 402 | 401.21 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spread: Spain (-1.5) | No | 5.0¢ | 24.0¢ | 5.78 | 192 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 | Yes | 77.0¢ | 86.9¢ | 413 | 299.76 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 | No | 11.0¢ | — | 224 | 0 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spread: Spain (-1.5) | Yes | 76.0¢ | 94.6¢ | 328 | 327.6 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 | No | 3.7¢ | — | 1,199.72 | 0 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 | Yes | 90.0¢ | 94.1¢ | 505 | 502.62 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 | No | 2.0¢ | 2.5¢ | 1,136.98 | 1,766.08 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spread: Spain (-2.5) | Yes | 54.9¢ | 51.0¢ | 461.76 | 203 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spread: Spain (-2.5) | No | — | 45.5¢ | 0 | 298.36 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | No | — | 48.0¢ | 0 | 149.34 | Jun 21, 2026 |