◆ Contact Dossier
0xd75a...fdec
0xd75af87133fc14de68cd83a9e8c5d999fa49fdec
7.4
/ 10 · 90D
Orca
Class · est. size $43.3K
30-Day Window7.0 SIG
- Edge / share
- +10.4¢ · 34 resolved
- Hit rate
- 43.6%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $12.3K / $18.3K
- % return
- +64.7%
- Observations
- 39
90-Day Window7.4 SIG
- Edge / share
- +9.0¢ · 97 resolved
- Hit rate
- 47.6%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $12.9K / $43.3K
- % return
- +28.6%
- Observations
- 103
Dive Profile
Net Catch · 90D
+$13,959
Depth = mark-to-market P/L90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 4,079.11 | 93.0¢ | 93.5¢ | $3,814 | +$21 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 3,316.63 | 68.1¢ | 86.5¢ | $2,869 | +$610 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 2,683.29 | 95.9¢ | 97.0¢ | $2,601 | +$27 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 1,056.06 | 50.5¢ | 45.5¢ | $481 | -$53 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 857.79 | 95.0¢ | 95.8¢ | $822 | +$7 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | No | 809.37 | 96.8¢ | 97.5¢ | $790 | +$6 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 555.5 | 22.0¢ | 7.5¢ | $42 | -$81 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 359.26 | 18.2¢ | 1.3¢ | $4 | -$61 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 259.43 | 98.7¢ | 99.5¢ | $258 | +$2 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 236.91 | 17.4¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$41 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 231.37 | 27.3¢ | 22.0¢ | $51 | -$12 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 222.2 | 30.0¢ | 32.5¢ | $72 | +$6 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Yes | 196.17 | 39.0¢ | 29.5¢ | $58 | -$19 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 128.76 | 13.0¢ | 37.5¢ | $48 | +$32 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | No | 122.52 | 67.5¢ | 81.0¢ | $99 | +$17 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 117.05 | 39.2¢ | 36.8¢ | $43 | -$3 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 111.9 | 35.7¢ | 51.5¢ | $58 | +$18 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | Yes | 100 | 62.8¢ | 32.5¢ | $33 | -$30 |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? | Yes | 26.05 | 40.0¢ | 25.5¢ | $7 | -$4 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 9.1 | 14.1¢ | 2.3¢ | $0 | -$1 |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | — | 2.0¢ | 0 | 848 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | No | 91.0¢ | 90.0¢ | 11.1 | 11.1 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 95.9¢ | — | 2,683.29 | 0 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | No | 96.8¢ | — | 809.37 | 0 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 98.7¢ | — | 259.43 | 0 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? | No | 64.8¢ | 9.0¢ | 192.31 | 54.03 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | No | 27.7¢ | 26.0¢ | 127.14 | 127.14 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? | Yes | 40.0¢ | — | 26.05 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 95.0¢ | — | 857.79 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 49.9¢ | 20.46 | 20.46 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 30.0¢ | — | 222.2 | 0 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 36.1¢ | 22.8¢ | 2,100.09 | 7,212.11 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 93.0¢ | 91.0¢ | 4,107.71 | 28.6 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 80.0¢ | — | 109.03 | 0 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | Yes | 56.2¢ | 48.1¢ | 703.5 | 26.98 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | Yes | 62.8¢ | — | 100 | 0 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | — | 8.5¢ | 0 | 3,307.34 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? | Yes | 69.3¢ | 67.0¢ | 33.3 | 33.29 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? | No | 21.0¢ | — | 111.1 | 0 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Yes | 43.4¢ | — | 95.77 | 0 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| ▸ | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 48.8¢ | — | 534.05 | 0 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 22.0¢ | — | 555.5 | 0 | Jun 16, 2026 |