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@Toncar16
0x41583f2efc720b8e2682750fffb67f2806fece9f
6.5
/ 10 · 90D
Humpback
Class · est. size $226.9K
30-Day Window4.9 SIG
- Edge / share
- +2.4¢ · 92 resolved
- Hit rate
- 61.4%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $28K / $112K
- % return
- +24.8%
- Observations
- 114
90-Day Window6.5 SIG
- Edge / share
- +5.8¢ · 264 resolved
- Hit rate
- 60.9%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $50.8K / $226.9K
- % return
- +22.3%
- Observations
- 299
Dive Profile
Net Catch · 90D
+$16,401
Depth = mark-to-market P/L90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Yes | 3,572.22 | 0.0¢ | 29.5¢ | $1,054 | +$1,054 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | No | 925.59 | 0.0¢ | 74.5¢ | $690 | +$690 |
| Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? | No | 431.65 | 0.0¢ | 65.5¢ | $283 | +$283 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 317.44 | 46.0¢ | 17.0¢ | $54 | -$92 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 5.88 | 34.0¢ | 32.5¢ | $2 | -$0 |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 34.0¢ | — | 5.88 | 0 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 43.0¢ | 337.44 | 20 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 38.5¢ | 38.7¢ | 2,421.59 | 2,421.59 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Yes | 27.6¢ | 37.5¢ | 5,279.67 | 1,707.45 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? | No | 55.9¢ | 77.3¢ | 1,103.4 | 2,126.83 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Yes | 10.8¢ | 12.6¢ | 929.07 | 929.07 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 5.8¢ | 8.8¢ | 2,186.81 | 3,009.59 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? | Yes | — | 2.1¢ | 0 | 3,855.41 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | No | 41.3¢ | 65.8¢ | 1,217.11 | 1,217.1 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Starmer out by June 22, 2026? | No | 35.3¢ | 38.6¢ | 698.51 | 698.51 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Starmer out by June 22, 2026? | Yes | 19.2¢ | 76.1¢ | 1,563.73 | 1,563.72 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | No | 41.8¢ | 12.9¢ | 840.36 | 840.36 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Yes | 29.8¢ | 35.0¢ | 641.27 | 641.27 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 45.0¢ | 94.0¢ | 1,333.33 | 1,333.33 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | No | 29.1¢ | 21.0¢ | 3,585.02 | 3,585.02 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | 59.6¢ | 55.2¢ | 3,181.08 | 3,181.08 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 27.5¢ | 28.0¢ | 632.88 | 632.88 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Starmer out by August 31, 2026? | No | 19.9¢ | — | 1,365 | 0 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | No | 15.5¢ | 17.6¢ | 1,034.68 | 1,034.68 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 26.5¢ | 999.99 | 999.99 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? | Yes | 2.5¢ | 1.7¢ | 2,733.79 | 2,733.79 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? | Yes | 15.8¢ | 5.0¢ | 2,196.54 | 2,196.54 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | No | 42.0¢ | 33.1¢ | 530.18 | 530.17 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? | Yes | 36.9¢ | 38.2¢ | 2,639.01 | 2,639 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 10.9¢ | 11.6¢ | 2,128.87 | 2,128.86 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? | No | 39.8¢ | 38.8¢ | 2,240.94 | 2,240.94 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? | Yes | 27.1¢ | 12.6¢ | 635.78 | 1,801.67 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 13.2¢ | 10.0¢ | 1,614.45 | 1,614.44 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 14.1¢ | 555.56 | 555.55 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? | No | 54.3¢ | 58.1¢ | 487 | 487 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | — | 15.8¢ | 0 | 815.2 | Jun 16, 2026 |