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@eightpenguins
0x3c593aeb73ebdadbc9ce76d4264a6a2af4011766
8.9
/ 10 · 90D
Sperm Whale
Class · est. size $827.9K
30-Day Window6.9 SIG
- Edge / share
- +9.2¢ · 43 resolved
- Hit rate
- 33.3%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $185.2K / $461K
- % return
- +39.6%
- Observations
- 48
90-Day Window8.9 SIG
- Edge / share
- +12.4¢ · 128 resolved
- Hit rate
- 49.3%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $211.2K / $827.9K
- % return
- +25.2%
- Observations
- 134
Dive Profile
Net Catch · 90D
+$252,903
Depth = mark-to-market P/L90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 41,189.4 | 92.0¢ | 93.5¢ | $38,512 | +$632 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 31,497.28 | 68.7¢ | 86.5¢ | $27,245 | +$5,596 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 17,277.7 | 95.2¢ | 97.0¢ | $16,751 | +$302 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 11,307.1 | 50.4¢ | 46.5¢ | $5,258 | -$444 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 8,887.98 | 94.0¢ | 95.8¢ | $8,515 | +$160 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 7,265.12 | 48.0¢ | 21.5¢ | $1,562 | -$1,923 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | No | 6,043.05 | 96.2¢ | 97.5¢ | $5,895 | +$83 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Yes | 5,625.84 | 38.0¢ | 29.5¢ | $1,660 | -$478 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 5,555 | 21.0¢ | 7.5¢ | $417 | -$750 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | No | 5,028.12 | 72.6¢ | 81.0¢ | $4,073 | +$423 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 4,962.73 | 35.1¢ | 51.5¢ | $2,556 | +$815 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 4,443.97 | 23.0¢ | 6.5¢ | $289 | -$733 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 3,709.16 | 26.6¢ | 22.0¢ | $816 | -$169 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 3,119.26 | 33.9¢ | 32.5¢ | $1,014 | -$43 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 2,594.39 | 98.6¢ | 99.5¢ | $2,580 | +$22 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 2,432.24 | 17.3¢ | 0.1¢ | $1 | -$419 |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2,354.95 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $4 | -$14 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 2,278.9 | 19.2¢ | 1.4¢ | $31 | -$406 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | Yes | 2,094.99 | 62.0¢ | 32.5¢ | $681 | -$619 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 1,665 | 57.1¢ | 74.0¢ | $1,232 | +$281 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 1,575.13 | 12.7¢ | 37.5¢ | $591 | +$391 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,285.73 | 39.1¢ | 36.6¢ | $471 | -$32 |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? | Yes | 1,211.04 | 39.6¢ | 25.5¢ | $309 | -$171 |
| Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | No | 474.26 | 88.0¢ | 88.5¢ | $420 | +$2 |
| Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | No | 122.15 | 90.0¢ | 90.5¢ | $111 | +$1 |
| Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? | Yes | 44.25 | 68.0¢ | 0.9¢ | $0 | -$30 |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | No | 90.0¢ | — | 174.61 | 0 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | — | 1.4¢ | 0 | 12,853.44 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | No | 88.0¢ | — | 474.26 | 0 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 98.6¢ | — | 2,594.39 | 0 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | No | 96.2¢ | — | 6,043.05 | 0 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 95.2¢ | — | 17,277.7 | 0 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Yes | 45.8¢ | 83.5¢ | 666 | 666 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? | No | 63.7¢ | 11.0¢ | 2,611.71 | 782.31 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | No | 79.1¢ | — | 1,319.33 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | No | 27.0¢ | 19.6¢ | 1,343.8 | 1,343.8 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? | Yes | 39.6¢ | — | 1,211.04 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 94.0¢ | — | 8,887.98 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 29.0¢ | — | 2,222 | 0 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 33.1¢ | 19.3¢ | 17,430.63 | 61,416.84 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 92.0¢ | — | 41,189.4 | 0 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 79.7¢ | — | 3,332.97 | 0 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | Yes | 58.9¢ | — | 4,958.54 | 0 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | Yes | 62.1¢ | — | 2,094.99 | 0 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | — | 7.7¢ | 0 | 2,398.72 | Jun 18, 2026 |