◆ Contact Dossier
0x02a1...dd72
0x02a17a92e6f673129b37d95359c7af628a3cdd72
7.4
/ 10 · 90D
Orca
Class · est. size $107.6K
30-Day WindowN/A SIG
- Edge / share
- +4.6¢ · 17 resolved
- Hit rate
- 23.5%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $5.7K / $42.7K
- % return
- -20.8%
- Observations
- 17
90-Day Window7.4 SIG
- Edge / share
- +11.8¢ · 34 resolved
- Hit rate
- 44.1%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $10.6K / $107.6K
- % return
- -3.7%
- Observations
- 34
Dive Profile
Net Catch · 90D
-$1,774
Depth = mark-to-market P/L90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? | Yes | 1,410.77 | 2.0¢ | 0.1¢ | $2 | -$26 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 1,025.81 | 62.0¢ | 70.5¢ | $723 | +$87 |
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 999.99 | 16.0¢ | 1.1¢ | $10 | -$149 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | No | 988.81 | 49.7¢ | 98.9¢ | $977 | +$486 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 800 | 38.0¢ | 99.0¢ | $792 | +$488 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 650.94 | 9.7¢ | 39.5¢ | $257 | +$194 |
| Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 603.6 | 1.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $1 | -$8 |
| Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 603.6 | 1.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $1 | -$8 |
| Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 603.6 | 1.5¢ | 0.3¢ | $2 | -$7 |
| Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 603.6 | 1.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$9 |
| Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 603.6 | 1.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $1 | -$8 |
| Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 603.6 | 1.5¢ | 0.5¢ | $3 | -$6 |
| Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 603.6 | 1.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $1 | -$8 |
| Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 603.6 | 1.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $1 | -$8 |
| Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 603.6 | 1.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $1 | -$8 |
| Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 603.6 | 1.5¢ | 0.8¢ | $5 | -$4 |
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 257.09 | 1.5¢ | 0.8¢ | $2 | -$2 |
| Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 248.44 | 16.0¢ | 1.1¢ | $3 | -$37 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? | No | 200.01 | 11.0¢ | 99.8¢ | $200 | +$178 |
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 112.22 | 44.5¢ | 13.5¢ | $15 | -$35 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 10 | 50.0¢ | 93.7¢ | $9 | +$4 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 3.61 | 1.5¢ | 74.2¢ | $3 | +$3 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 3.6 | 1.5¢ | 16.0¢ | $1 | +$1 |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | Yes | 1.32 | 1.1¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 35,136.36 | 50.2¢ | 91.5¢ | $32,150 | +$14,511 |
| Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 29,573.8 | 0.2¢ | 0.3¢ | $74 | +$15 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 24,985.07 | 81.8¢ | 94.3¢ | $23,548 | +$3,107 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 20,000 | 50.0¢ | 8.5¢ | $1,700 | -$8,300 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 11,276.77 | 64.4¢ | 79.5¢ | $8,965 | +$1,699 |
| Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 10,935.58 | 0.3¢ | 0.1¢ | $16 | -$13 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 9,999.98 | 58.1¢ | 60.5¢ | $6,050 | +$240 |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | No | 9,999.98 | 87.3¢ | 98.3¢ | $9,825 | +$1,095 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 7,477.96 | 10.4¢ | 9.5¢ | $710 | -$70 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | No | 7,131.13 | 89.4¢ | 99.2¢ | $7,074 | +$697 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 7,000 | 70.0¢ | 99.8¢ | $6,983 | +$2,083 |
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | Yes | 6,361.37 | 26.2¢ | 13.0¢ | $827 | -$838 |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | Yes | 6,096.29 | 17.5¢ | 0.7¢ | $40 | -$1,029 |
| Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 5,650.87 | 0.6¢ | 0.4¢ | $20 | -$15 |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 2,917.81 | 0.9¢ | 2.1¢ | $61 | +$35 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 2,620.16 | 49.3¢ | 53.5¢ | $1,402 | +$109 |
| European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | Yes | 2,619.67 | 14.4¢ | 0.8¢ | $20 | -$357 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea? | Yes | 2,192.65 | 0.4¢ | 0.1¢ | $1 | -$8 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? | Yes | 2,034.28 | 2.0¢ | 0.2¢ | $4 | -$37 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 1,550 | 36.4¢ | 63.5¢ | $984 | +$420 |
| NATO dissolves before 2027? | No | 1,499.99 | 90.0¢ | 95.9¢ | $1,438 | +$88 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? | Yes | 1,486.14 | 2.3¢ | 0.1¢ | $1 | -$33 |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Yes | 29.7¢ | 89.0¢ | 4,499.88 | 1,000 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 47.0¢ | 93.0¢ | 2,000 | 1,999 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | No | 60.0¢ | — | 800 | 0 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 32.5¢ | 30.5¢ | 9,776.92 | 9,776.92 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 49.9¢ | 64.5¢ | 15,999.92 | 2,700 | Jun 12, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 64.0¢ | — | 4,000 | 0 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 11.0¢ | — | 2,727.27 | 0 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? | Yes | 33.4¢ | — | 5,499.97 | 0 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? | Yes | 21.0¢ | — | 5,118.65 | 0 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | Yes | 22.0¢ | — | 2,032.41 | 0 | May 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | Yes | — | 67.4¢ | 0 | 3,112.27 | May 24, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | — | 62.0¢ | 0 | 999.99 | May 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | No | 87.3¢ | — | 9,999.98 | 0 | May 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | Yes | 14.0¢ | — | 601.92 | 0 | May 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 55.0¢ | — | 5,000 | 0 | May 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 62.0¢ | — | 1,025.81 | 0 | May 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | No | 89.4¢ | — | 7,131.13 | 0 | May 13, 2026 |