Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
View on PolymarketYES Price
26.5¢
implied probability
24h Drift
0.0¢
day-over-day
Volatility
3.6¢
daily price swing (σ)
Liquidity
$310.8K
order-book depth
24h Volume
$1.4K
traded last day
Smart $ Net
$0
tracked buy − sell
Tracked Wallets
2
1 YES · 1 NO
Top Holder
84%
of tracked capital
Price History
≤475149Whale buyWhale sellRegime shift
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 4 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
No tracked whale trades in this market yet.
Holder Concentration
Jep-G#97
83.6%$447.6
cry.eth2#44
16.4%$87.5
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.73). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 0 winning, 0 losing (win rate —); net $78.6 across 2 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
By headcount50% / 50%
one wallet, one vote
By capital16% / 84%
weighted by committed $
By skill52% / 48%
weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.