Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
View on PolymarketYES Price
31.9¢
implied probability
24h Drift
+0.1¢
day-over-day
Volatility
2.3¢
daily price swing (σ)
Liquidity
$756.4K
order-book depth
24h Volume
$68.8K
traded last day
Smart $ Net
$0
tracked buy − sell
Tracked Wallets
2
1 YES · 1 NO
Top Holder
93%
of tracked capital
Price History
Harry KaneKylian MbappéLamine YamalWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 7 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
No tracked whale trades in this market yet.
Holder Concentration
0x53eCc53E7#68
92.7%$826.4
cry.eth2#44
7.3%$64.8
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.87). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 1 winning, 0 losing (win rate 100%); net $204.5 across 2 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
By headcount50% / 50%
one wallet, one vote
By capital7% / 93%
weighted by committed $
By skill52% / 48%
weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @cry.eth2 Rank #447.5 SIG | YES | open | 588.15 | 11.0¢ | $187 | +$122 +189.0% | — | — | |
| @0x53eCc53E7 Rank #686.8 SIG | NO | open | 1,332.88 | 62.0¢ | $908 | +$82 +9.9% | — | May 7, 2026 |